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Abstract The tropical Pacific climate has an outsized impact on global climate, yet future projections are poorly constrained. Data‐model comparisons from the mid‐Pliocene warm period (3.3 million years ago) can help investigate warm climate dynamics and evaluate model behavior. Here we compare proxy records to PlioMIP2 models and a model with modified cloud albedo. Relative to modern, the mid‐Pliocene warm period records show subsurface warming across the tropical Pacific, strong eastern Pacific surface warming and weak western Pacific surface warming. Using clustering analyses to group model behavior relative to the proxy data, we find the model cluster with the best fit with the proxy data has enhanced warming in mid‐latitude thermocline source water regions which connect to the equator through the ventilated thermocline. Our study shows tropical ocean heat content during the mid‐Pliocene warm period was higher than today and has broad implications for the ocean's ability to absorb anthropogenic heat.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available August 28, 2026
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Abstract Quantifying variability in, and identifying the mechanisms behind, East Asian dust production and transport across the last several million years is essential for constraining future dust emissions and deposition. Our current understanding of East Asian dust dynamics through the Quaternary is primarily limited to low‐resolution records from the North Pacific Ocean, those from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), and paleoenvironmental reconstructions from arid basins. All are susceptible to sediment winnowing and focusing as well as input of poorly constrained or unidentified non‐dust detrital material. To avoid these limitations, we examine high‐resolution, constant flux proxy‐derived dust fluxes from the North Pacific and find evidence for higher glacial dust fluxes in the late Pliocene‐early Pleistocene compared to the late Pleistocene‐Holocene. Our results suggest decreasing dust transported to the mid‐latitude North Pacific Ocean from eastern Asia across the Quaternary. This observation is ostensibly at odds with previous dust records from marine sediments and the CLP, and with the perception of higher East Asian dust production and transport during the late Pleistocene associated with the amplification of glaciations. We provide three possible scenarios to describe the ∼2,700‐ky evolution of eastern Asia glacial dust dynamics, and discuss them in the context of sediment production, availability, and atmospheric circulation. Our data and proposed driving mechanisms not only raise questions about the framework typically used to interpret dust archives from East Asia and the North Pacific Ocean, but also provide a roadmap for hypothesis testing and future work necessary to produce better‐constrained records of paleo‐dust fluxes.more » « less
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null (Ed.)As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.more » « less
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Abstract Much uncertainty exists about the state of the oceanic and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific over the last glacial cycle. Studies have been hampered by the fact that sediment cores suitable for study were concentrated in the western and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific, with little information from the central tropical Pacific. Here we present information from a suite of sediment cores collected from the Line Islands Ridge in the central tropical Pacific, which show sedimentation rates and stratigraphies suitable for paleoceanographic investigations. Based on the radiocarbon and oxygen isotope measurements on the planktonic foraminiferaGlobigerinoides ruber, we construct preliminary age models for selected cores and show that the gradient in the oxygen isotope ratio ofG. ruberbetween the equator and 8°N is enhanced during glacial stages relative to interglacial stages. This stronger gradient could reflect enhanced equatorial cooling (perhaps reflecting a stronger Walker circulation) or an enhanced salinity gradient (perhaps reflecting increased rainfall in the central tropical Pacific).more » « less
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